What if I Had Invested $100/Month in Bitcoin? DCA Simulation
It's the question everyone has asked after watching Bitcoin go from a few hundred dollars to over $100,000. What if I had started investing $100 a month in 2015? In 2018? In 2020? Using real historical data, here is what you would have earned — and what it teaches about applying the DCA strategy to cryptocurrencies.
Why DCA on Bitcoin?
Bitcoin is the most volatile asset in modern financial markets. Trying to buy it "at the right time" is practically impossible, even for professional traders. That's why many crypto investors have adopted the DCA (Dollar-Cost Averaging) strategy: invest a fixed amount each month, regardless of price.
DCA on Bitcoin has a major psychological advantage: you buy during both euphoric phases and "crypto winters" — and it's during those downturns that you accumulate the most Bitcoin for the same dollar amount.
Simulation: $100/month since January 2015
Investing $100 per month in Bitcoin from January 2015 to December 2023 (9 years):
- Total invested: $10,800
- Value at end of 2023 (Bitcoin at ~$42,000): approximately $150,000–$200,000
- Total return: +1,300% to +1,750%
In other words, $100 per month for 9 years would have turned $10,800 into over $150,000. Even accounting for brutal crashes (−80% in 2018, −75% in 2022), the discipline of monthly buying would have produced extraordinary returns.
Simulation: $100/month since January 2018 (at the peak)
What if you had started at the worst possible moment — at the height of the 2017 bubble, just before the crash?
- Period: January 2018 to December 2023 (6 years)
- Total invested: $7,200
- Value at end of 2023: approximately $25,000–$35,000
- Total return: +250% to +385%
Even buying at the 2017 all-time high, the DCA strategy would have put you firmly in profit 6 years later.
Simulation: $100/month since January 2020
- Period: January 2020 to December 2023 (4 years)
- Total invested: $4,800
- Value at end of 2023: approximately $12,000–$16,000
- Total return: +150% to +230%
What these simulations teach us
These numbers illustrate several important truths about DCA applied to Bitcoin:
- Entry timing matters less than you think — even starting at the worst moment, monthly discipline more than compensates
- Crashes are buying opportunities — during the 2018–2020 "crypto winter", your monthly $100 bought far more Bitcoin than at the peak
- Duration is decisive — the earlier you start, the more compounding works in your favor
- Volatility remains extreme — at certain points in these simulations you were deep in the red. Real conviction is required to hold on
These figures are based on real historical data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Bitcoin remains a highly speculative asset.
DCA Bitcoin vs. DCA S&P 500: which to choose?
The comparison between these two strategies is instructive:
- DCA S&P 500: 10–12% annual return, moderate volatility, suits all investor profiles
- DCA Bitcoin: much higher potential returns, but extreme volatility (−80% possible), suits only investors with a long time horizon and high risk tolerance
The most balanced strategy: a core DCA on a diversified index (S&P 500, MSCI World), with a satellite allocation of 5–10% maximum in Bitcoin if you believe in its long-term potential.
Calculate your own simulation
Want to know exactly what you would have earned investing a specific amount in Bitcoin (or any other asset) since a date of your choice? Our simulator uses real historical data to give you the answer instantly.
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You can also compare Bitcoin vs. S&P 500 in the same simulation to see which would have been more profitable over your chosen period.